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SPEKULATOR BUKAN OPEC PENENTU HARGA MINYAK DUNIA

In OPEC, PASARAN HADAPAN, SPEKULATOR on June 3, 2008 at 4:46 pm

Pasaran Hadapan Komoditi atau (Commodity Future Market) digunakan oleh bank, petani, pengeluar atau pengeksport, pengurus dana dan pengguna sesuatu komoditi sebagai satu kaedah bertahan terhadap kerugian yang mungkin berlaku (“hedging”). Ia juga merupakan suatu spekulasi tentang kenaikan atau penurunan sesuatu komoditi seperti petroleum.

Trading atau perniagaan (jual beli) kontrak hadapan memiliki beberapa kelebihan berbanding dengan perniagaan saham. Pertama ialah “leverage” atau peluang membuat duit yang berlipat kali ganda berbanding dengan modal yang dikeluarkan. Dalam kes petroleum, untuk membeli saham komoditi minyak petroleum adalah mahal tetapi untuk membeli kontrak hadapan minyak petroleum adalah sangat murah. Kenaikan harga satu peratus diterjemahkan kepada keuntungan berpuluh peratus. Kedua, perniagaan kontrak pasaran hadapan dikenakan komisyen yang sangat rendah tetapi komisyen untuk membeli atau menjual saham adalah tinggi. Ketiga, perniagaan pasaran hadapan memberi keuntungan kepada peniaga tak kira sama ada pasaran bullish atau bearish. Walau bagaimanapun pasaran hadapan mempunyai risikonya yang tersendiri.

Petikan dari akhbar the Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/02/AR2008060200091.html

“Naturally, since the past few years, the US financial sector has begun to turn its attention from currency and stock markets to commodity markets. According to The Economist, about $260 billion has been invested into the commodity market — up nearly 20 times from what it was in 2003.

Coinciding with a weak dollar and this speculative interest of the US financial sector, prices of commodities have soared globally.

And most of these investments are bets placed by hedge and pension funds, always on the lookout for risky but high-yielding investments. What is indeed interesting to note here is that unlike margin requirements for stocks which are as high as 50 per cent in many markets, the margin requirements for commodities is a mere 5-7 per cent.

This implies that with an outlay of a mere $260 billion these speculators would be able to take positions of approximately $5 trillion — yes, $5 trillion! — in the futures markets. It is estimated that half of these are bets placed on oil.

Today’s oil prices are believed to be determined by the four Anglo-American financial companies-turned-oil traders, viz., Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, J P Morgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley. It is only they who have any idea about who is entering into oil futures or derivative contracts. It is also they who are placing bets on oil prices and in the process ensuring that the prices of oil futures go up by the day.

But how does the increase in the price of this oil in the futures market determine the prices of oil in the spot markets? Crucially, does speculation in oil influence and determine the prices of oil in the spot markets?

Answering these questions as to whether speculation has supercharged the demand for oil The Economist, in its recent issue, states: ‘But that is plain wrong. Such speculators do not own real oil. Every barrel they buy in the futures markets they sell back again before the contract ends. That may raise the price of ‘paper barrels,’ but not of the black stuff refiners turn into petrol. It is true that high futures prices could lead someone to hoard oil today in the hope of a higher price tomorrow. But inventories are not especially full just now and there are few signs of hoarding”.

why oil prices are rising
Rediff, India – Jun 2, 2008
Naturally, it has been opined by experts that since the advent of oil futures, oil prices are no longer controlled by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum
Watchdogs to probe oil price rise bunkerworld (subscription)
European shares move higher as oil retreats MarketWatch
Speculating on oil: Wall Street is evil! The Union Leader
EconomistBloomberg
all 1,485 news articles »

Graf pengeluaran dan penggunan minyak dunia

Malaysia ajak dunia gantung pasaran hadapan minyak

Oleh Azman Zakaria dan Sazarina Shahrim

Sumber Berita Harian Online

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia mengajak komuniti antarabangsa mengkaji kemungkinan menggantung urus niaga minyak dalam pasaran hadapan bagi menangani kenaikan mendadak harga bahan api itu yang turut melonjakkan harga komoditi lain, termasuk makanan.

Ketika mengemukakan saranan itu, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkata, komuniti antarabangsa perlu mengambil langkah berani yang belum pernah dilakukan itu untuk mengelak bidaan spekulatif yang menyebabkan kenaikan melampau harga minyak.

Perdana Menteri memberi contoh Jepun ketika ini sudah pun menggantung urus niaga beras dalam pasaran hadapan serta menawarkan untuk menjual beras daripada stok penimbalnya pada harga lebih rendah.

“Kita harus mengkaji langkah sedemikian bagi kemungkinan melaksanakannya untuk pasaran minyak, iaitu penyumbang penting yang melonjakkan harga komoditi lain.

“Semua langkah ini tentunya memerlukan rundingan dan perjanjian pada peringkat antarabangsa,” katanya dalam ucaptama pada Rundingan Meja Bulat ke-22 Asia Pasifik, di sini semalam.

Turut hadir, Raja Muda Perak, Raja Dr Nazrin Shah, Pengerusi dan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Institut Kajian Strategik dan Antarabangsa (Isis) Malaysia, Datuk Seri Mohamed Jawhar Hassan serta Pengerusi Isis-Asean, Prof Dr Carolina Hernandez.

Lebih 200 peserta termasuk dari Amerika Syarikat, Jepun, China, India, Taiwan dan negara Asean, menghadiri program anjuran Isis Malaysia dan Isis-Asean itu.

Abdullah berkata, kenaikan mendadak harga bahan makanan, minyak dan komoditi memerlukan maklum balas global kerana usaha peringkat serantau dan nasional biasanya terhad.

Katanya, beban kenaikan harga yang kini sebahagian besarnya ditanggung negara membangun dan miskin, dengan mudah boleh melimpah kepada masyarakat maju.

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  1. terima kasih puan atas link dan berita yang sangat bermanfaat!

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